Waterville, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

728
FXUS61 KGYX 022010
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
310 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of light snow is expected tonight as a surface
warm front moves through the region. Following a brief break
Monday, another system moves through Monday night with mixed
precipitation. Colder air returns for midweek, followed by
another low pressure system moving through on Thursday, which
could bring a mix of wintry precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High clouds have begun to mask the low level cloud streets
drifting north...but KGYX 88D now starting to show radar returns
moving north into coastal areas this hour. Some ocean effect
snow showers are possible thru this evening as the southerly
winds steadily ramp up ahead of the approaching system.

Light snow will begin to overspread the forecast area from west
to east around 6 or 7 pm...reaching the Kennebec River Valley
around 11 pm or so. Broad mid level WAA will be forcing that
light snow and likely will produce fairly uniform QPE/snowfall
totals as a result. There may be some localized enhancement due
to upsloping or coastal front...but overall totals will be
between 1.5 and 3 inches for most areas by the time snowfall
ends. It looks like a roughly 6 hour period of good snow
growth...so things should be winding down prior to the morning
commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
After snow tapers off most of Mon will be dry. But a warm front
lifting into the area may keep things more cloudy than not.
Temps will try and climb into the 40s across southern
areas...but overall it will be one of the more mild days we have
had recently. A weak low pressure will slide along the front
late in the afternoon or early in the evening and send a cold
front crossing the forecast area. Showers will be likely along
the front...but given how warm temps will be they may fall as
snow or rain. Eventually any lingering rain showers will turn to
snow as colder air filters in behind the front.

I have blended in some raw 2 m temp guidance to step readings
down Mon night in CAA. Upslope snow showers will be likely
overnight into Tue. Some light accumulations are likely in the
favored northwest slopes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weakly amplified zonal flow across the N tier of the CONUS
and the intl border, continue to bring frequent light precip
events and swings in temps through this week. Late week there
seems to be a model trend for a stronger though push across N
CONUS, and with some help from a wave pushing equatorward out of
the Arctic toward the Canadian Rockies, will push the jet to
our S, and maybe keep us on its colder this weekend.

Mountain clouds and a few SHSN possible Tuesday, with generally
sunny skies to the S in the downslope are expected with highs
20-25 in the mtns, ranging to the mid 30s in the S. Tue night
looks mainly clear and cold with some potential for rad cooling,
so mins drop to the -5 to zero in the mtns to generally 5-10
above in the S. Wed should be another nice day, with mainly
sunny skies, and light wind, although it will be a little colder
with highs ranging from teens in the mtns to 25-30 in the S.

Our next system is currently centered around Thursday, and could
see some precip moving in from the SW late Wed night, but the
best chance will be during the day on Thu. P-types are still
uncertain at this point, although it will likely start as snow
everywhere late Wed night early Thu, changing to ultimately rain
on the coast for a period and sleet or freezing rain inland, but
the p-types away from the coast are where the greatest
uncertainty lies. 12Z ECMWF has scale back QPF a bit, and this
may rival our largest QPF event since Jan 1st, although were
only talking about a half inch. As is often the cast could see
some lingering precip into Thu evening, but should clear out by
Friday with temps around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Widespread VFR conditions currently. Ocean effect
clouds and snow showers may bring MVFR or lower conditions to
PSM...PWM...and RKD late this afternoon. Then this will all
give way to IFR or lower conditions quickly this evening as
snow moves in from the west. Snow will end from west to east
very late tonight or early Mon. IFR conditions will improve to
MVFR until deeper mixing can scatter out those CIGs. VFR returns
south of the mtns...while MVFR CIGs linger to the north as
upslope flow continues. A cold front will cross the area with
local MVFR or lower conditions in rain or snow showers...with
snow showers likely in the mtns. MVFR conditions north of the
mtns will continue into Mon night.

Long Term...VFR expected Tue into Wed night with flight
restrictions likely Late Wed night into Thu evening in a mix of
wintry precip. VFR should return for Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Ocean effect snow showers will continue into the
evening...until at least the main batch of light snow moves in
and covers all of the coastal waters. Southerly winds will also
increase tonight and gusts around 25 kt are expected outside of
the bays. A SCA has been issued for the southerly flow. After a
brief break Mon...west southwest and then northwest winds will
increase and become gusty. Another SCA will likely be
necessary...possibly for all waters.

Long Term...SCA will likely be needed Tue into Tue night, but
should settle down over the waters Wed into Thu, but winds pick
up again on Friday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Monday
     for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Cempa